Ma'aden (1211) — Trading Dashboard

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STOP-LOSS BREACH — ACTION REQUIRED

Current unrealized loss = SAR 375 (1.875% of portfolio). Your 1.5% max-loss rule (SAR 300 trigger at 64.35 SAR) has already been breached. The 2% hard cap (SAR 64.02) is just 0.08 SAR below current price. Per standing rules, you must either set a firm stop at SAR 63.00 or exit to honor the 2% cap. Do not add to position.

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CONCENTRATION RISK — 98% of Portfolio in One Position

300 shares × 65.35 SAR = SAR 19,605 is deployed against a SAR 20,000 portfolio. This is a single-stock portfolio. While fundamentals are strong, any gap-down would cause outsized damage. No adding until a fresh R/R model is reviewed with stop-loss confirmed.

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STRONG FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP — Q1 2026 beat, $110B capex plan active

FY2025 net profit +156% YoY (SAR 7.35B). Q1 2026 revenue +3% YoY. Vision 2030 mining expansion. Phosphate 3 Phase 1 on track for 2027 production. Sector tailwinds intact.

Key Price Levels — SAR

ATH 79.90 All-time high — Jan 27 2026

R3 73.00 Analyst high target zone

R2 70.00 Prior consolidation ceiling

R1 66.96 Analyst avg target / near buy

YOUR BUY 65.35 Avg cost basis

NOW ▶ 64.10 May 6, 2026

STOP 1.5% 64.35 ✗ BREACHED SAR 300 max loss rule

STOP 2% 64.02 ⚠ NEAR SAR 400 hard cap (0.08 below now)

S1 / STOP 3% 63.00 Round support — absolute hard stop

S2 60.00 Major psychological support

S3 57.00 Deep support — breakdown scenario

Risk Calculator

Scenario	Stop Price	Max Loss	% Portfolio	Status
1.5% rule	64.35	−300 SAR	1.50%	BREACHED
2% hard cap	64.02	−400 SAR	2.00%	0.08 away
S1 / 3% absolute	63.00	−702 SAR	3.51%	Over limit
S2 scenario	60.00	−1,605 SAR	8.03%	Risk-off

Current Exposure Gauge

Current loss: 1.875%Hard cap: 2%

93.75% of the 2% hard cap consumed

Risk/Reward at Analyst Target (66.96)

Potential gain to avg target	+SAR 858
Risk at 2% hard cap stop	−SAR 400
R/R ratio	2.15 : 1 ✓
Potential gain to ATH (79.90)	+SAR 4,740
R/R ratio (ATH target)	11.85 : 1 ✓

Income Statement Snapshot

Metric	FY2024	FY2025	Chg
Revenue	32.6B	38.6B	+19%
Net Profit	2.87B	7.35B	+156%
EPS (SAR)	0.78	1.91	+145%

All figures SAR. Source: Tadawul / Arab News

Q1 2026 Quarterly Update

Metric	Q1 2025	Q1 2026	Chg
Revenue	~$2.23B	$2.30B	+3%
EBITDA	~$927M	$964M	+4%
EPS (est.)	—	0.43	Beat est.

Released May 4, 2026. Source: Maaden IR / StockAnalysis

Valuation Multiples

Metric	Value	Signal
P/E (FY2025 EPS)	33.6×	Pricey
Analyst avg target	66.96	+4.5%
Analyst high target	80.00	+24.8%
Analyst low target	46.00	−28.2%
Analysts covering	19	Neutral

Signal Summary

Indicator	Reading	Signal
Trend (from ATH)	−19.8% drawdown	Downtrend
Price vs 50-DMA (est.)	~Below	Bearish
Price vs 200-DMA (est.)	~Above	Bullish LT
1W momentum	+0.30%	Neutral
1M momentum	+2.83%	Mild recovery
Distance from ATH	79.90 → 64.10	−19.8%

* 50/200 DMA estimates — verify on TradingView TADAWUL:1211

Key Price Action Notes

Jan 27, 2026 — ATH at 79.90 SAR Stock peaked on $110B capex plan announcement euphoria at Future Minerals Forum
Feb–Apr 2026 — Pullback phase 19.8% correction from ATH. Healthy after a 28% 1-year run. Sector rotation / profit-taking
May 4, 2026 — Q1 2026 earnings released Revenue +3%, EBITDA +4% YoY. Results modest but positive. EPS ~0.43 SAR
Current: 64.10 — Testing support zone Near critical 63–64 support band. 1M recovery (+2.83%) suggests stabilization attempt

Bullish Catalysts (12-month)

Catalyst	Timeline	Impact
$110B investment plan execution	2026–2035	HIGH
Phosphate 3 Phase 1 completion	2027	HIGH
2026 capex: $4B+ deployed	2026	MED
Vision 2030 mining expansion	Ongoing	HIGH
Gold production tripling plan	10-yr plan	MED
Phosphate output 6.5–7.1M t	2026E	HIGH
Strong commodity price cycle	2026	MED

Bearish Risks

Risk	Probability	Impact
Phosphate / DAP price decline	Medium	HIGH
Global recession → demand drop	Low–Med	HIGH
Project execution delays	Low	MED
High P/E (33.6×) compression	Medium	MED
Oil price collapse (budget risk)	Low	MED
USD/SAR rate (USD-priced commod.)	Low	LOW

Consensus Rating

NEUTRAL

1 Buy · 2 Sell · remainder Hold

Price Target Range

LOW

46.00

→

AVG

66.96

→

HIGH

80.00

All prices in SAR

Upside/Downside from Current (64.10)

To avg target (66.96) +4.5%

To high target (80.00) +24.8%

To low target (46.00) −28.2%

Immediate Action Required

Set hard stop-loss at 63.00 SAR today (round support, last line of defense)
Do NOT add to position — R/R not yet recalculated with fresh model
If price breaks 64.02 intraday, exit half or full position per the 2% cap rule
Review daily until a clear bounce or breakdown is confirmed

Bull Case — HOLD to Target

Hold if price stabilizes above 64.00 and reclaims 65.35 (cost basis)
First target: 66.96 SAR (analyst avg) — take partial profits
Full target: 70–73 SAR range — re-test of pre-ATH levels
Only add on a confirmed weekly close above 67 SAR with new stop model

Fundamental Conviction Score

★★★★☆

4 / 5

Strong earnings growth (+156%)
Vision 2030 structural tailwind
$110B capex = long-term growth runway
Risk: high P/E (33.6×), pullback not over
Risk: stop-loss breach requires discipline

Done?	Action	Priority	Deadline
☐	Set stop-loss order at 63.00 SAR with your broker	CRITICAL	Today
☐	Check TradingView TADAWUL:1211 for RSI + MACD readings	HIGH	Today
☐	Read Q1 2026 earnings release on saudiexchange.sa for net profit SAR figure	HIGH	Today
☐	Update CLAUDE.md with confirmed stop-loss level	MED	Today
☐	If price reclaims 65.35: recalculate R/R model for potential add	MED	On trigger
☐	Monitor Argaam for Phosphate 3 Phase 1 construction updates	LOW	Weekly

Ma'aden 1211